NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Titans have huge graphical and statistical advantage over Panthers

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• Points earned for Tennessee Titans vs.
Carolina Panthers: Tennessee is a nightmare matchup for a Panthers team and could be the worst in the league.
• Cheering on the Buffalo Bills vs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Allen and the Bills are lucky he can keep up with his team the Eagles at 9-1.
• Davante Adams is at his best: Both scheme and game script elements should help Adams succeed against the Chiefs.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes After his three games on Thanksgiving and his first-ever Black Friday game, the Week 12 balance looks a little lighter on Sunday.
In this article, we find valuable bets by identifying small favorites with ideal schematic matches.
We will continue to buy elite teams that the market continues to discount.
Finally, support your elite receivers in prime positions to gain more yards.
Let’s get started.

 

He has two rookie signal callers in this game.
, his No.
1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, and his second-round pick Will Levis, who will be making his fifth start of his career.
After a strong debut in Week 8 against the Falcons, throwing for four touchdowns, Levis struggled to perform.
Fortunately, this Titans offense is having a very bad game against the Panthers’ poor defense.

 

Tennessee is one of the league’s worst rushing teams and entered the season with the seventh-lowest passing percentage, which is better than expected.
Over the past three weeks, the Titans have struggled against difficult run defenses including the Buccaneers and Jaguars, limiting their ability to stay in front of the chains on early downs and forcing Levis into difficult third-and-long situations.
Fortunately, they face the lowest-rated run defense in the NFL this week.
The Panthers also allow the highest expected points per rush in the league.
Derrick Henry should be able to put the Titans offense in a much better situation than it has been in recent weeks.
Tennessee is one of the league’s most run-heavy teams, with the seventh-lowest pass completion percentage above expectations for the season.
Over the past three weeks, the Titans have struggled against difficult run defenses including the Buccaneers and Jaguars, limiting their ability to stay in front of the chains on early downs and forcing Levi into difficult third-and-long situations.
Fortunately, they face the lowest-rated run defense in the NFL this week.
The Panthers also allow the highest expected points per rush in the league.
Derrick Henry should be able to put the Titans offense in a much better situation than it has been in recent weeks.
Since Week 7, the Titans have played with the fifth-highest zone coverage percentage in the league.
If Young wants to be successful in this game, he will have to consistently break the Tennessee zone, something he has not been able to accomplish in his career.
Carolina also likely won’t be able to pass the ball well against the Titans’ solid run defense, forcing Young into difficult third-and-long situations.

In addition to their on-field matchups, the Panthers deserve to be overshadowed by their dramatic performance on late downs.
They were the worst team in the league on early downs, according to NET EPA+, but were able to perform solidly on late downs and increase their overall EPA numbers significantly.
Once recent performance begins to stabilize, EPA numbers will likely worsen further.
The opposite is true for the Titans, who are above-average on early downs, but are let down by key downs late.
Once these numbers start to balance out, we should see a positive regression for the Titans and a negative regression for the Panthers in terms of overall EPA numbers per game.
From both a schematic and statistical standpoint, the Titans are a very good bet against a weak Panthers team.
Tennessee is a bit of a favorite here.
I bet on the Bills in this article last week, and they beat the Jets as 8-point favorites.
This week will be a completely different challenge, but it’s still one of Buffalo’s most underrated teams.
Yes, the Bills have lost a few games recently, but he still has one of the strongest statistical profiles in the NFL.
Using a weighted version of NET EPA+, which rates offensive performance twice as much as defensive performance, Buffalo was the third-best team in the league and the Eagles ranked fifth.