Paul Spoonley:

Record immigration will put pressure on population, infrastructure and productivity – where is the election

debate?

NOTICE

Fears expressed by many experts and politicians earlier this year that New Zealand might struggle to attract immigrants have proven premature. In fact, the country’s population has grown to the point where this will be a bigger election issue than it actually is.

In the 12 months to July, the total number of permanent migrants was 208,400, well above previous levels. If you include those who left permanently, the net population increase from immigrants amounts to 96,200 people.

This breaks all previous records and even puts New Zealanders back to a consistent pattern of net losses (39,500 over the same period). Everything indicates that the country will achieve a net annual increase of 100,000 inhabitants.

At this rate, immigration will lead to a net annual population growth of 2% by 2023. Once natural increase (births and deaths of more than 20,000 per year) is added, the overall rate will be about 2.3% to 2.4%. . . In contrast, the OECD average is less than 0.5%.

Auckland is enteri

The election question is missing
Most major parties are positive about the role and contribution of immigrants (unlike in some countries where anti-migrant sentiment is on the rise). But parties are also primarily concerned with the details of policy, not the big picture.

Labor, National, Act and the Greens all offer visas for families and parents. This is to be welcomed because migration happens best when extended families are involved. And it is generally recognized that talent recruitment needs more attention.

ng a new era of rapid population growth, reversing the decline in 2021. The city’s growth accounts for about half of the country’s total net migration increase. Combined with a natural increase of about 7,000 to 8,000 residents, this means the city will experience significant population growth, even taking into account the net loss of migration to other areas.

Part of this increase can be explained by the return to relative normality following the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions. But there are plenty of other factors driving people to New Zealand, including anti-immigration policies and general frustration in other countries.

New Zealand is considered a popular destination. In a recent US survey, Americans ranked New Zealand second on the list of “best countries”, ahead of the United States itself.

Immigration and productivity
In 2021, at the request of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Productivity Commission examined how the immigration environment would contribute to the “long-term prosperity and well-being” of the country.

The Immigration – Ready for the Future report released in 2022 provides a very comprehensive assessment of the data and issues. While pointing out that immigration and immigrants have positive impacts and outcomes for New Zealand, he also highlighted a lack of consistency and strategy as well as a lack of public accountability.

Key findings include what the commission calls an “infrastructure gap” caused by investment failing to keep pace with population growth. It also describes the “risk of dependence” on immigrant workers, which would have “negative consequences for innovation and productivity.” In the trade-off between employing immigrant labor and investing in new technology, the problem is that immigrant labor is an easy win, with little incentive for employers to innovate.

Clearly absent from this election campaign, however, are the significant impacts of the current wave of immigration on planning and productivity.